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Finance Portfolio Research & Analysis for August 18 – 22, 2008

From our Global (includes the USA) research division and subsequently Global strategy analysts, the following financial analysis excerpts are from revisions recently completed on Globally based investment portfolios:1

Analysis: From No. D7 (Global) Financial Portfolio Research Revision –

CurrencyShares (Wgt: MC) British Pound Sterling (FXB) vs. PowerShares (Wgt: MC) Currency Harvest Fund (DBV):

(1) Observation – Relative Strength: Results in the relative strength analysis of British Pound Sterling (FXB) versus Currency Harvest Fund (DBV) indicate that FXB is fairly neutral to DBV on a relative basis. We are seeing the same relative strength relationships with the following currencies: Euro (FXE), and Japanese Yen (FXY).

(2) Observation – Regression: Comparison of the linear regression to the time-series that has a 3-period forward shift finds the following formation: The price is below the linear regression, and the linear regression is below the time-series. Since the linear regression provides the “best fit” to the price path, this has near term negative implications for FXB. However, there is a very slight path shift from strongly negative to one with a flatter slope. Additionally, DBV is also shifting.

(3) Observation – Price Performance: British Pound Sterling (FXB) shows a continuation (that began in late July) of a negative price path (downward slope) on fairly strong indicators.

Reference Charts: D7-7 (relative strength); AD7A-7a (regression); AD7B-7b (price)

Additional considerations:

First, for most investors, a diversified investment portfolio approach combining stocks, bonds, money market securities, etc., is optimal. While financial diversification cannot protect against a loss from a declining market, it can reduce the overall portfolio’s volatility.

Second, with the ongoing shift of pension responsibilities from employer to employee, personal investment success will need to supplement most benefit packages. Thus, a goal of successful investing in a variety of assets becomes crucial in providing a comfortable retirement for yourself and your spouse. In consideration of that goal, studying the information available on this site, which has been kind enough to host our research in this article, will help. At www.StrategicCapitalResearch.com, we provide additional finance educational materials to what you find here in both investment books and videos. Between the two sites, you should be able to find enough information to get started toward achieving your pension investment goals.

Third, to the above analysis excerpt, the usual disclaimers apply. Since all Strategic Capital Research publications provide research that is conducted using historical data, a reminder needs to be made that the analysis of past market reactions cannot predict future market actions. In particular, no amount of historical data can predict the sudden changes that occasionally occur in financial markets.

1 Reference chart numbers beginning with an “A” refer to the auxiliary analyses completed on the “D” portfolios located at www.strategiccapitalresearch.com/research.html

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